Curse Desk Instrument · Misery Index v3

A league-wide measure of outcome drought.

The Misery Index measures outcome drought across all 32 NFL franchises through the completed 2025 season. It combines long-term results with performance over the most recent five seasons, using the same fixed rules for every team.

Detroit ranks eighth. By this measure, seven franchises have it worse. The unusual events examined by Same Old timeLions are a separate question.

Scope and boundaries

Legacy Burden /60. Current Suffering /40.

What this measures: Multi-decade championship drought, postseason scarcity, sustained losing records, and recent five-season regular-season and playoff performance across all 32 franchises, scored mechanically on a fixed 0–100 scale.

What this does not measure: Fan emotional intensity, ownership character, officiating fairness, explanatory oddity, or the validity of the Detroit 0–16 Turn.

Published result

Detroit’s result

Rank: 8 / 32
Total: 72.607725
Legacy Burden: 47.534164 / 60
Current Suffering: 25.073561 / 40

Arizona is first. Cleveland is tenth.

Detroit since 2020

Detroit’s results improved.

Detroit’s conventional outcome burden has eased since 2020. The 0–16 Turn does not require constant misery; it requires credible success without closure. The Misery Index does not prove that claim. It establishes the improving conventional backdrop against which individual events are judged.

From 2020 to 2025 the headline moved -7.05: legacy +0.25, current suffering -7.30. The present improved. The old title relief barely moved.

Completed 2025 ranking

The full league ranking.

Ranks use full-precision machine values. The table shows rounded display figures. Each row keeps the unrounded totals as machine data.

Misery Index v3 headline ranking, completed 2025 season
Rank	Franchise	Total	Legacy /60	Current /40	Headline tier	Legacy tier	Current state
1	Arizona Cardinals	86.52 `86.524883`	53.22 `53.224576`	33.30 `33.300307`	Historic	Historic	Crisis
2	Atlanta Falcons	77.23 `77.229191`	46.10 `46.100000`	31.13 `31.129191`	Severe	Severe	Severe
3	Tennessee Titans	76.89 `76.888035`	43.30 `43.300128`	33.59 `33.587907`	Severe	Severe	Crisis
4	New York Jets	76.33 `76.332549`	42.17 `42.166387`	34.17 `34.166162`	Severe	Severe	Crisis
5	Carolina Panthers	76.12 `76.122545`	43.35 `43.354839`	32.77 `32.767707`	Severe	Severe	Crisis
6	Los Angeles Chargers	73.83 `73.834492`	46.36 `46.359654`	27.47 `27.474838`	Severe	Severe	Severe
7	Jacksonville Jaguars	73.33 `73.329803`	44.74 `44.741935`	28.59 `28.587868`	Severe	Severe	Severe
8	Detroit Lions	72.61 `72.607725`	47.53 `47.534164`	25.07 `25.073561`	Severe	Severe	Severe
9	Cincinnati Bengals	71.26 `71.258635`	45.43 `45.427586`	25.83 `25.831049`	Severe	Severe	Severe
10	Cleveland Browns	70.06 `70.064249`	37.88 `37.878921`	32.19 `32.185327`	Severe	Severe	Crisis
11	Houston Texans	66.21 `66.212466`	41.80 `41.800000`	24.41 `24.412466`	Severe	Severe	Severe
12	Minnesota Vikings	65.86 `65.858729`	38.75 `38.753846`	27.10 `27.104883`	Severe	Severe	Severe
13	Chicago Bears	63.30 `63.297590`	33.65 `33.646573`	29.65 `29.651017`	Severe	Afflicted	Severe
14	New Orleans Saints	60.90 `60.896232`	28.94 `28.942406`	31.95 `31.953826`	Severe	Afflicted	Severe
15	Miami Dolphins	59.65 `59.646838`	30.37 `30.372243`	29.27 `29.274595`	Afflicted	Afflicted	Severe
16	Las Vegas Raiders	59.51 `59.505690`	26.19 `26.187026`	33.32 `33.318664`	Afflicted	Afflicted	Crisis
17	Buffalo Bills	54.67 `54.671669`	37.22 `37.222960`	17.45 `17.448709`	Afflicted	Severe	Strained
18	Washington Commanders	51.05 `51.054388`	22.45 `22.451621`	28.60 `28.602767`	Afflicted	Ordinary	Severe
19	Indianapolis Colts	50.51 `50.511210`	19.67 `19.666746`	30.84 `30.844464`	Afflicted	Ordinary	Severe
20	New York Giants	45.05 `45.051038`	11.95 `11.950495`	33.10 `33.100543`	Afflicted	Untroubled	Crisis
21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	41.80 `41.795740`	15.64 `15.640000`	26.16 `26.155740`	Afflicted	Ordinary	Severe
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	36.50 `36.500036`	9.72 `9.716129`	26.78 `26.783907`	Ordinary	Untroubled	Severe
23	Los Angeles Rams	36.32 `36.315303`	16.24 `16.240909`	20.07 `20.074394`	Ordinary	Ordinary	Strained
24	Denver Broncos	34.64 `34.640427`	8.65 `8.654545`	25.99 `25.985882`	Ordinary	Untroubled	Severe
25	Green Bay Packers	33.58 `33.582345`	7.94 `7.942857`	25.64 `25.639488`	Ordinary	Untroubled	Severe
26	Dallas Cowboys	31.03 `31.028439`	3.82 `3.818182`	27.21 `27.210258`	Ordinary	Untroubled	Severe
27	New England Patriots	29.64 `29.640112`	4.80 `4.800000`	24.84 `24.840112`	Ordinary	Untroubled	Severe
28	Philadelphia Eagles	29.44 `29.440491`	11.28 `11.283871`	18.16 `18.156620`	Ordinary	Untroubled	Strained
29	Seattle Seahawks	28.48 `28.475917`	7.16 `7.160000`	21.32 `21.315917`	Ordinary	Untroubled	Strained
30	Baltimore Ravens	28.29 `28.290707`	3.60 `3.600000`	24.69 `24.690707`	Ordinary	Untroubled	Severe
31	Kansas City Chiefs	26.60 `26.597688`	10.67 `10.672727`	15.92 `15.924961`	Ordinary	Untroubled	Stable
32	San Francisco 49ers	24.90 `24.897828`	4.85 `4.850000`	20.05 `20.047828`	Ordinary	Untroubled	Strained

Six components

The headline is a sum, not a mood.

L1 championship legacy, L2 postseason scarcity, L3 sustained futility, L4 identity disruption, C1 recent regular season, C2 recent postseason non-closure
Rank	Franchise	L1 /30	L2 /15	L3 /10	L4 /5	C1 /20	C2 /20
1	Arizona Cardinals	28.53	13.02	7.68	4.00	13.54	19.76
2	Atlanta Falcons	30.00	10.00	6.10	0.00	11.13	20.00
3	Tennessee Titans	26.79	7.27	6.24	3.00	13.83	19.76
4	New York Jets	25.84	9.55	5.78	1.00	14.17	20.00
5	Carolina Panthers	30.00	6.29	7.06	0.00	13.37	19.40
6	Los Angeles Chargers	28.25	9.55	4.56	4.00	8.86	18.62
7	Jacksonville Jaguars	30.00	7.26	7.48	0.00	10.24	18.34
8	Detroit Lions	25.48	12.19	6.86	3.00	7.83	17.25
9	Cincinnati Bengals	30.00	9.83	5.60	0.00	9.67	16.16
10	Cleveland Browns	20.38	8.38	6.13	3.00	12.56	19.62
11	Houston Texans	30.00	6.25	5.55	0.00	9.52	14.89
12	Minnesota Vikings	30.00	5.31	3.45	0.00	7.88	19.22
13	Chicago Bears	15.68	9.91	5.06	3.00	11.76	17.89
14	New Orleans Saints	12.77	9.92	6.26	0.00	11.95	20.00
15	Miami Dolphins	20.27	5.00	5.10	0.00	9.96	19.32
16	Las Vegas Raiders	11.21	3.64	6.35	5.00	13.56	19.76
17	Buffalo Bills	26.31	5.00	5.91	0.00	5.64	11.80
18	Washington Commanders	4.41	7.02	6.02	5.00	11.47	17.13
19	Indianapolis Colts	7.02	5.55	5.10	2.00	10.84	20.00
20	New York Giants	0.00	7.57	4.38	0.00	14.15	18.95
21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.00	7.80	7.84	0.00	9.10	17.06
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	0.00	3.39	5.33	1.00	8.48	18.30
23	Los Angeles Rams	0.00	5.11	6.13	5.00	8.13	11.94
24	Denver Broncos	0.00	4.09	4.56	0.00	8.57	17.41
25	Green Bay Packers	0.00	4.43	3.51	0.00	8.29	17.35
26	Dallas Cowboys	0.00	0.00	3.82	0.00	8.88	18.33
27	New England Patriots	0.00	0.00	4.80	0.00	10.20	14.64
28	Philadelphia Eagles	0.00	5.65	5.64	0.00	5.96	12.19
29	Seattle Seahawks	0.00	3.00	4.16	0.00	7.64	13.68
30	Baltimore Ravens	0.00	0.00	3.60	0.00	7.99	16.70
31	Kansas City Chiefs	0.00	3.18	4.49	3.00	7.03	8.89
32	San Francisco 49ers	0.00	0.00	4.85	0.00	7.67	12.37

Fixed parameters

Locked before the first v3 score.

Legacy / current weights: 60 / 40
Championship half-life: 20 completed seasons
Pre–Super Bowl title weight: 0.5
Historical playoff-win relief: 0.5 wins per franchise-season
Recent window: 5 completed seasons
Recent half-life: 3 seasons
Recent postseason-berth relief: 0.10
Relief per recent postseason win: 0.25
Non-champion recent relief cap: 0.85

Tier calibration

The adjectives are uncalibrated.

Headline occupancy is Untroubled 0, Ordinary 11, Afflicted 7, Severe 13, Historic 1. Current-state occupancy is Calm 0, Stable 1, Strained 5, Severe 19, Crisis 7.

The fixed labels are secondary summaries. Raw score, component split, and rank are primary. Empty or crowded tiers are not grounds for retuning.

Detroit, 2015–2025

Detroit annual history, 2015 through the completed 2025 season
Season	Rank	Legacy /60	Current /40	Total	Headline tier	Current state
2015	5 / 32	46.11	29.45	75.57 `75.565572`	Severe	Severe
2016	4 / 32	46.32	29.01	75.34 `75.335783`	Severe	Severe
2017	4 / 32	46.52	28.37	74.89 `74.890553`	Severe	Severe
2018	3 / 32	46.79	29.34	76.12 `76.124406`	Severe	Severe
2019	3 / 32	47.04	31.71	78.75 `78.754807`	Severe	Severe
2020	3 / 32	47.29	32.37	79.66 `79.658412`	Severe	Crisis
2021	2 / 32	47.53	33.96	81.49 `81.487809`	Historic	Crisis
2022	2 / 32	47.69	33.09	80.78 `80.778734`	Historic	Crisis
2023	7 / 32	47.22	27.36	74.57 `74.573725`	Severe	Severe
2024	8 / 32	47.38	24.46	71.84 `71.841999`	Severe	Severe
2025	8 / 32	47.53	25.07	72.61 `72.607725`	Severe	Severe

v2 to v3

Related, and materially different.

Near-miss burden left the headline. A deep run now supplies relief through wins; its eventual loss is not an extra penalty. Detroit moved from rank 2 to rank 8, 6 places down the misery table.

Largest rank-number movements from v2 to v3
Franchise	v2	v3	Change
Detroit Lions	2	8	+6
Kansas City Chiefs	25	31	+6
Carolina Panthers	10	5	-5
Buffalo Bills	12	17	+5
Philadelphia Eagles	23	28	+5
New York Jets	8	4	-4
Cincinnati Bengals	5	9	+4
New Orleans Saints	18	14	-4
Dallas Cowboys	30	26	-4
New England Patriots	31	27	-4
San Francisco 49ers	28	32	+4

Sensitivity

Rank 8 is not parameter-invariant.

The 729-combination joint grid varies the layer split, championship half-life, pre–Super Bowl weight, playoff-win benchmark, recent window, and recent half-life.

Detroit rank range: 2–12; median 9.
Headline tier: Severe in 726 variants, Historic in 3.
Arizona first in all 729.

The two-layer conclusion is more stable than the exact rank: the legacy remains heavy, and the recent window is materially better than it was.

Model audit

Nine findings. No arithmetic or data errors.

The independent v3 audit found nine issues in framing, calibration, or publication discipline. None changed a frozen score. The uncalibrated tier vocabulary is the most visible remaining limitation.

Independent check

Wolfram reproduced Detroit from the formulas.

A Wolfram Language evaluator received Detroit’s frozen cumulative inputs and the locked specification. It did not read the Python CSV. After display precision, every published component matched. Total 72.607725. The 2020-to-2025 change matched the history file.

Later draft

v3.1 remains an unscored draft.

A later construct sits behind an explicit approval gate. It has no published formula, no team scores, and no implied replacement on this page. v3 is the computed, audited, and published instrument.

Reproduction packet

Frozen files, sorted, checksummed, and hash-matched.

Download the frozen v3 reproduction packet below. Its accepted description, limitations, checksums, and file links remain unchanged.

The public copies are byte-identical to the controlling research sources. The ZIP uses a normalized archive timestamp. Use the checksums, not trust.

The packet is an audit bundle, not a self-contained offline recomputation. It deliberately excludes third-party raw snapshots, derived warehouse files, and preserved v2 comparison material. The complete preserved research tree remains the rebuild environment.

The included tests are inspectable specifications in the public packet; they execute only against the complete preserved research tree.

The Misery Index is governed by Curse Desk Method at cursedesk.com/method. Detroit-specific anomaly reporting and historical case files are maintained separately on Same Old timeLions at sameoldtimelions.com.